Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
