The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Surprising Title Charge

Just 60 days prior that the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for Villa's wider issues.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

The Manager's Celebration of Elation

In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. As the in-form star drilled in his second to restore the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six matches, find themselves a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?

This is a rather hard proposition to address. History, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the positive results have stacked up.

As per the data, in only two games has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club who have just won 10 in a row, Villa appear curiously susceptible – but at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their talisman to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they will encounter in the near future. The forward, surely, will not continue to thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Could it be another reality whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.

  • The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
  • The attacking talent could transform into the force he was in Germany.
  • The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, nobody thought Rogers now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital player for the national team.

The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.

Samuel Morrison
Samuel Morrison

A seasoned tech strategist with over 15 years of experience in digital innovation and startup consulting.