Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
